'India' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com Edward Hugh submits:

India's inflation shot up again at the start of August and hit a 16-year high of 12.44% in the week to Ausust 2, following a 12.01% increase in the previous week, according to data from the Commerce Ministry. Concerns have also been raised that inflation may accelerate further after the government approved sizeable wage increases (in the region of 21%) for civil servants. Click to enlarge:


The Indian cabinet yesterday approved an average 21 per cent pay rise for 5m federal employees and military personnel. This is effectively the first revision of government salary scales for 12 years. P. Chidambaram, finance minister, said on Thursday that the civil servants’ pay rise, to be backdated to January 1 2006, would cost Indian taxpayers $3.6bn (€2.4bn, £1.9bn) this fiscal year, including part of the arrears from 2006. Separately, Indian Railways will have to pay $1.5bn to its employees.

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The rising cost of crude has been attributed to rising world demand and dwindling supply. 'Peak Oil Theory' is debated at family dinner tables and water coolers throughout America. CNBC hosts a parade of analysts who speak in detail on how growing demand in China and India are eating up supply. I wonder and question the health and longevity of this reality.

A growing middle class in India and China are singled out as the largest growing consumer segment of gasoline worldwide. It also happens that it is in China and India where you can find the world's cheapest cars. The highly anticipated Nano, known as the "People's Car", from India's Tata Motors (TTM), is the world's cheapest automobile starting at just $2,500.00 and China boasts a $5,000.00 car from Chery Automobiles sold only in China. Why do the world's cheapest cars come from the two countries with fastest "growing middle class"? Why doesn't this growing middle class go out and buy a shiny new BMW or Mercedes?

Complete Story » Tom Lydon (ETF Trends) submits: Wal-Mart Seeks Expansion In Brazil, Taking ETF Shopping It could be a win-win situation for both Brazil and ETFs that hold Wal-Mart as a top component.

Wal-Mart (WMT) is looking to expand in Brazil, where it is the third-largest retailer, in hopes that Brazilians will shop till they drop.

Wal-Mart is looking to invest $1.1 billion into the country in 2009, which is up 50% they planned to spend this year, reports Fabiola Moura for Bloomberg. This will be the largest investment endeavor since the company entered the country in 1995.

Complete Story » Thomas Smicklas submits:

India can be a nasty place to invest. Government bureaucratic nightmares that make ours seem paltry in comparison. Corruption, swindling, frequently changed regulations to suit political whims: check, check and check. Buying the Indian market through an ETF or sector mutual fund was popular - until the market hit the skids.

One stock I like now (other than ICICI Bank (IBN)) is Dr. Reddy's Labs (RDY) as an ADR. This rather oddly named company is a diversified and aggressive pharmaceutical company with a presence in over one hundred countries. RDY has seen its share price have ups and downs, but I believe that now is a good time to enter the security with a target price of $34/share. Presently RDY trades at $14.76 with a market cap of $2.5b. As its 52-week high has only been slightly north of $18/share, one could question my sanity at making a bold calculation of a future price two years or less hence.

Complete Story » Richard Shaw (QVM Group) submits:

The US stock markets have been downright boring on a 10-year basis, while the BRIC countries have left the US in the dust in the last several years.  The recent turn of the tables on the emerging markets is so severe that YTD 2008, the US markets are stronger than Russia, India and China, and just barely behind Brazil.

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Complete Story » Ajay Jindal submits:

Infosys (INFY) and Wipro (WIT) are quoting at around 16x forward, and twice have even gone down to 13.5x forward.

This chart shows that there is no valuation premium for India’s IT leaders over the rest of the Indian market. Is that fair? Perhaps not. While other sectors like real estate and construction, capital goods and so on powered the last bull market, it does appear fair to say that India’s finest companies should command no valuation premium to the market.

Complete Story » Ketul Kirtikumar submits:

Sector Analysis: ICICI Bank (IBN) is India’s largest private sector bank - it belongs to the International Banking group. Oflately, fortunes of international banks have been tied to the US financial sector; IBN’s correlation to Financials SPDR (XLF) in the past six months is 0.86. In simple terms, IBN traded in-line with the US financial sector for the past six months and dropped by 50%; underperforming India’s BSE Sensex which fell by 15% during the same period.

There are many reasons for IBN’s decline but a major influence has been the issues facing the US banking sector. So, the obvious question that investors have regarding banking stocks is: “what if the story of US banks' asset write downs and earnings losses is repeated in emerging markets such as India?” However, there are a few subtle differences between Indian banks and their US counterparts that make Indian banks less likely to follow the same path.

Complete Story » Edward Hugh submits:

India’s latest run of strong economic growth and continuing macroeconomic stability is a tribute the important progress made in recent years in macroeconomic management techniques as well as to an earlier generation of structural reforms. India’s economy has now expanded at an average rate of about 8½ percent for four years running, on the back of rising productivity and sustained investment. Inflation after ebbing in the second half of 2007 has now returned in full force and become one of the most pressing macro problems facing the Indian economy.

In fact, the record capital inflows which have followed the bout of global financial turbulance and a slowing U.S. economy, while in the long run beneficial, have only served to complicate the application of sound monetary policy. The current account deficit, which had remained modest, is now – on the back of high oil prices, heavy external energy dependence and a growing fiscal deficit – in danger of becoming a matter of concern.

Complete Story » Shailendra Kumar submits:

After my last two articles regarding the impending fall in Indian gold consumption, there has been a flurry of emails. Frankly I am surprised by the response. I did not know so many people out there would be interested in Indian gold consumption. Now I stand corrected.

Since it is difficult to give response to so many individuals, I would try to address them openly. It is easy to do so since most of the emails are loaded with common questions like "Wouldn't the agriculture economy pick up soon?", "Why does Indian economy look suddenly so bad?", and "Wouldn't the Indian stock market rise soon to its former glory?"

Complete Story » Money Morning submits:

By Jason Simpkins

News Corp. (NWS), the media giant owned by Rupert Murdoch, will strengthen its presence in India with the creation of six regional television channels.

Complete Story » Tom Lydon (ETF Trends) submits: Passing the Torch to China’s ETFs

As the torch is lit during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, will it light a fire under the Chinese ETFs, too?

Many investors are pondering whether they should get back into the Chinese market now and what impact, if any, the Olympics will have in both the near- and long-term.

Complete Story » Gagan Sharma submits:

Oil has touched a 3-month low and optimists have already passed the verdict that inflation has peaked. Credit rating agency Moody's said on Monday that inflation may have peaked in India, as is reflected by the latest moderation, even though Goldman Sachs raised its projection for the rate of price rise by 1.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent for the current fiscal year.

Inflation remains at a 13-year high of 11.98 per cent for the week ended July 19. Falling crude prices, a slowing commodity boom cycle and the recovery of the US dollar are other reasons supporting the optimists. Global inflationary pressure could undoubtedly subside, but the domestic situation may continue to remain bleak. This was reflected in the hawkish instance of the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) at the recent monetary policy review where it raised the Repo Rate by 50bps and CRR by 25bps to 9% each. Some might criticize this as a regressive step, but the fact remains that inflation fears remain intact.

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Excerpts from Gilford Securities analyst Ashish R. Thadhani's recent note to clients on Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH):

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Complete Story » Martin Hutchinson submits:

Global investors need to “hit the BRICs” – literally.

Back in 2003, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), eager to push its clients towards global investing – especially in the emerging markets, invented the acronym “BRIC” (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to represent the four emerging markets it believed were destined to become dominant economies in the years to come.

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Excerpts from Gilford Securities analyst Ashish R. Thadhani's recent note to clients on Syntel, Inc. (SYNT):

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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation (CTSH)

Q2 FY08 Earnings Call

Complete Story » Larry MacDonald submits:

Anyone who’s been following the Doha round at the World Trade Organization (even if that someone’s only been following casually–and really who could take it full-time?) cannot even pretend to be surprised that yet again the trade talks have faltered.

Complete Story » Ajay Jindal submits:

Indian market risks look weighted on the downside.

1Q09 earnings look generally disappointing. Looks like FY09 earnings growth could end up close to 10%, or definitely less than 15%. Which means forward PE could trend down to around the historical low of 11x. So where does the market go?

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Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) is expected to report Q2 earnings after marekt close Thursday July 31, with a conference call scheduled for 4:00 pm ET.

Guidance

The consensus estimate is 35c for EPS and $682.48M for revenue, according to First Call.

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Excerpts from Gilford Securities analyst Ashish R. Thadhani's recent note to clients summarizing a recent analyst briefing by NASSCOM President Som Mittal at the Harvard Club in New York on July 28, 2008:

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